Marathon pace predictor

Well, I guess it looks like I have work to do.  I’ve never run a marathon and I’d always assumed I could run one in about 3:30 if things went well.  It appears I should be pretty close to that.

This link discusses many ways to predict y0ur marathon time based on your best 10k.  I feel like my best 10k isn’t a good time for me, but alas, it is what it is.  My best is 0:43:12.  So, according to the theory they seem to ascribe to most, I can multiply this by 5 and subtract 10 minutes.  That yields 206 minutes or 3:26.

My best 5k to date is 0:19:26, so I feel like I should run a 10k much nearer to (if not under) 0:40:00.  A 40 minute 10k would yield a predicted marathon of 3:10:00.

Based on the 7% fatigue curve rule (pace decreases by ~7% when distance doubles – check Endurance Corner for more info on this), I should be running a 10k around 0:41:30.  So, I’m either not in the proper shape to run a well paced 10k or I’ve had bad races.  It’s probably a little bit of both.  Enough rambling for now.  I just came across that and thought it was interesting.


Posted on December 11, 2012, in Running, Triathlon Training and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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